The rest of the season

The share of the simulated seasons in which the team finishes in each place: every week left played against the team scheduled, from today's rosters, onto the record already banked. The largest is the place in large type. A place under 0.05% is left out, and when more are left than fit, the rest are summed in one line.

The share of those seasons in which the team makes the playoffs, and in which it earns a first-round bye where the league gives one.

So far is the record in the weeks already played. Projected is the record the season ends on, the mean of the simulated seasons, in the unit the league ranks by.

The strongest free add, swap and two-for-two the season report's search found among the free agents read, each with what it changes in an ordinary week from here on, and over the weeks left with this one.

Each category's chance of being won in an ordinary week, before the move and after it, as the change in whole points: the two rounded figures subtracted.

Opens the Roster page with the move set in the panel of the man it drops, ready to run through the what-if. Nothing is made in your league. A move into an open place opens on the Matchup page's Build your own instead.

Each matchup left in the regular season, against the team scheduled, from the league's projection: the categories it is expected to win, each category's chance summed, drawn to the league's count of categories with a tick at half of them.

The week in play counts what is already banked in it and says how many days it has left. A matchup period longer than a week says how long it is.

The league's teams in the order the projection ends the season on, the mean of the simulated seasons, ranked the way the league ranks. Your team's row is shaded, and shown after a gap when it sits below the rows shown.

So far is the record in the weeks played; Projected, where it ends; Playoffs, the share of simulated seasons in which the team gets in.

The dashed line is the playoff cut, from the league's own settings.

The chance of winning each category in an ordinary week from here on, with no move made, against the league's middle team, by the spreads measured on this league's own weeks. The figure in the head is those chances summed.

Likely yours at 65% or more, likely lost at 35% or less, and in the balance between them, read off the figure shown: where the page splits the categories for the eye, not a claim the model makes. In the balance, 46% to 54% is a coin flip.

What each man's place would give back if the wire's strongest replacement for it took it, in an ordinary week. A small figure is a cheap place to change, not a judgement of the player.

This is the season report's ordinary week with his place refilled from the wire; the Roster page's Cost to drop is the week report's reading of the drop, this week and each week after, so the two figures differ.

Injured men whose healthy value would rank on the wire by the time they return, and what a place for them would cost today. The odds are the NBA's own return record for men who have been out this long, read slower for a man whose report line names a fracture, a surgery or a tear; not a diagnosis and not a date.

Where that record cannot say (a man out more than 79 days, or with no game on record) he is counted from the expected return his league gives, shown as Back and the date in place of the odds. A long absence given as the 1st of a month reads here as the month, and he is counted from the middle of it until those dates have been measured.

Out is the days since his last game; Back in a fortnight, the chance he is back within two weeks; Expected, what holding his place nets over the season, in categories a week, less the weeks it stands empty; The place, whether holding him needs a drop.